Iran’s trade with the UAE is slowly moving again through Jebel Ali, Fars reported, reopening a familiar debate in Tehran: Iran needs the UAE, but that dependence comes with serious risk.

Details

• Fars quoted Seyed Mohammad Sadegh Ghanadzadeh, a senior official at Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, as saying commercial exchanges with the UAE have resumed through Jebel Ali at a “gentle pace.”

• The port’s activity was disrupted two days after the war, according to Fars, creating problems for unloading and shipping goods.

• Even after operations resumed, the report said the UAE did not allow the clearance of Iranian containers.

• Fars also said many Iranian traders had their bank accounts frozen and some were expelled from the UAE.

• Economist Amir Mohammad Golvani told Fars that, given the scale of trade and financial capacity involved, no country can easily take the UAE’s place in Iran’s economy.

• Golvani said the UAE’s key advantage is its flexible financial system, where traders can easily set up companies and finance exports and imports through trust-based structures.

• Former Central Bank of Iran governor Valiollah Seif said recent years have shown that relying on a single currency or trade hub is risky, even when that hub is efficient.

• Seif argued that Iran needs a wider network of trade, financial and currency channels to reduce its vulnerability to political and geopolitical shifts.

• Fars also cited the Iran Transportation Research Center as warning that making the UAE the main axis of Iran’s foreign trade again would tie the country to a geopolitical bottleneck and weaken efforts to diversify markets and logistics routes.

What to watch

The issue is bigger than Jebel Ali. Iran is trying to restore a trade route it cannot easily replace, while also admitting that the same route can become a pressure point when politics turns rough.

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The latest

The story of the Emirati aircraft that reportedly flew to Tehran is not just about a single flight.

Behind it, according to monitoring sources, is a longer track of Iranian attempts to reach Abu Dhabi since at least April.

Tehran understands the leverage the UAE holds. It also understands that Emirati ports have for decades served as a key artery for Iran’s trade with the outside world.

After repeated refusals, a major intermediary state with political and economic ties to Iran stepped in to try to arrange a channel between the two sides.

Abu Dhabi agreed in principle. But it set one core condition: any conversation had to be with the real decision-makers inside Iran’s system, not political fronts or figures without final authority.

According to the sources, Iran said some of those decision-makers could not travel to the UAE or to a neutral country, citing the risk of public exposure or Israeli tracking.

Abu Dhabi then agreed to send a delegation to Tehran, but with clear conditions for any understanding.

Details

• Flight-tracking reports and regional outlets said an Emirati RoyalJet Boeing 737 BBJ, registered A6-RJF, flew from Abu Dhabi to Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport on June 8.

• Some accounts claimed the flight carried cash or was linked to de-escalation arrangements. The sources reject those claims as unfounded.

• The more important development is the possible shift from indirect messages to a conditional negotiating channel between Abu Dhabi and Tehran.

• The UAE was Iran’s largest source of non-oil imports in the Iranian year ending in March 2025, with imports valued at $21.9 billion.

• In the same period, Iran’s non-oil exports to the UAE stood at $7.2 billion.

• That reflects deep commercial interdependence. It also shows how much Iran relies on the Emirati route.

• According to the sources, Abu Dhabi did not go to Tehran to offer concessions. It went to lay out conditions.

• The first condition: full and unconditional access through the Strait of Hormuz, backed by firm guarantees that it will not be used again as a pressure card.

• The second: verifiable commitments that Iran will not use ballistic missiles, drones, proxies or maritime threats against the UAE or its interests.

• The third: accountability and compensation for attacks on Emirati territory and infrastructure.

• Abu Dhabi’s position is that any understanding without enforcement and oversight is not an agreement. It is only a verbal pause that can collapse at the first crisis.

• In the background, the UAE has strengthened its defenses and built more credible layers of deterrence.

• That has allowed Abu Dhabi to enter any dialogue from a position of strength, not as a state seeking protection.

• Regional accounts have also referred to “unknown aircraft” responding to Iranian attacks by striking sensitive targets. Those claims remain unconfirmed publicly and should be treated cautiously.

What to watch

The key question is whether the Tehran flight becomes the start of a regular negotiating channel or remains a one-off test under Iranian pressure.

The main indicator will be the Strait of Hormuz.

If Iranian threats against Emirati interests ease and more stable passage arrangements emerge, it would suggest the message landed.

If Tehran returns to missiles, drones, proxies or maritime pressure, Abu Dhabi is likely to manage the confrontation through deterrence, not mediation.

Sources: 

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Iraq and the UAE are moving to expand oil export routes outside the Strait of Hormuz as they seek to limit the impact of disruptions along one of the world’s most important energy corridors. Analysts warn, however, that existing and planned alternatives will not be enough to replace the full volume of oil that once flowed through the strait.

Details

• Abu Dhabi is accelerating work on a new pipeline to Fujairah, a project expected to begin operations in 2027 and significantly expand ADNOC’s export capacity outside the Strait of Hormuz.

• Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan called in May for the project to be completed more quickly to meet growing global energy demand.

• While the UAE retains an alternative export outlet through Fujairah, energy infrastructure across the region remains vulnerable to security threats and attacks.

• The International Energy Agency estimates that alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE provide between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products that moved through Hormuz daily before the war.

• Building new export routes requires major investment, cross-border agreements and years of construction.

• Iraq’s cabinet last week approved plans to accelerate exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, potentially increasing capacity from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day.

• The route provides access to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, offering Baghdad an export corridor that bypasses the Gulf.

• Data from QuantCube Technology showed a sharp decline in Iraqi exports since the war began, reflecting the country’s heavy dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

• QuantCube chief economist Alan Le Maignan said Iraq faces a more difficult situation than the UAE or Saudi Arabia because it has fewer options to reroute exports.

• Baghdad said in May that it exported about 10 million barrels through Hormuz in April, down from 93 million barrels before the conflict.

What to watch

The pace of pipeline expansion projects will determine how effectively Gulf producers can adapt to prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. But securing those alternative routes may prove just as important as building them.

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For decades, Gulf states were best known as major customers of Western arms makers. Oil wealth paid for fighter jets, frigates and advanced air-defense systems. Local production remained limited.

That is starting to change.

The war with Iran has sharpened a push already under way across the Gulf: buying protection is no longer enough. Gulf states increasingly want to build part of it themselves.

The UAE is moving faster than most. EDGE Group, created in 2019 by merging about 25 Emirati defense firms, has become the region’s most serious defense-industrial player.

Details

• The Economist said Emirati defense products helped intercept about 80% of Iranian Shahed drones.

• EDGE’s revenue passed $5 billion last year, with an order backlog of more than $20 billion.

• Its chief executive, Hamad Al Marar, expects revenue to rise by about 20% over the next two years as the company works through those orders.

• EDGE is already among the world’s three largest producers of precision-guided munitions.

• The company is not trying to localize everything. It is focusing on critical systems and components where supply chains may prove fragile.

• EDGE has expanded through stakes and partnerships with foreign firms, including Leonardo, Fincantieri, Rheinmetall and Anduril.

• The group exports about three-quarters of its output to markets in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

• The UAE’s share of global arms imports fell to 2.7% in 2021-2025, down from 3.5% in 2016-2020, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

• In the Gulf, EDGE has signed a joint venture with Qatar’s Barzan Holdings and licensed vehicle technology to Saudi Arabia’s SAMI.

What to watch

The war has given EDGE a field record, not just a sales pitch. If the UAE can turn that performance into exports, contracts and locally owned technology, it could become the first Gulf state to build a defense industry that competes abroad, not only one that reduces dependence on the West.

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Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced plans to develop advanced unmanned underwater systems, with deliveries expected to begin in 2027. The platforms will be used to monitor subsea cables and pipelines, conduct surveillance missions, detect threats, and support anti-submarine operations.

UK Defence Secretary John Healey said protecting seabed infrastructure has become an increasingly important security priority as risks to undersea communications and energy networks continue to grow.

Details

• The initiative follows a series of incidents involving undersea cables in regions including the Red Sea and the Baltic Sea, raising concerns about sabotage and deliberate attacks on critical infrastructure.

• International estimates indicate that more than 95% of cross-border communications and data traffic travel through undersea cables, including a significant share of daily global financial transactions.

• Washington, London, and Canberra view autonomous maritime systems as a more efficient and cost-effective way to monitor thousands of kilometers of submerged cables and infrastructure than traditional naval patrols.

• At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz is gaining strategic importance beyond its traditional role as a key oil and gas transit route, emerging as a major hub for global digital data flows.

• Recent estimates suggest that roughly one-fifth of global data and financial communications traffic passes through cable networks linked to the Hormuz region.

• In recent months, Iranian officials and media outlets close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have floated proposals to impose transit fees or licensing requirements on cables crossing the strait, while requiring operators to comply with Iranian regulations.

• The affected cable networks support major global technology companies, fueling concerns that Hormuz could become a geopolitical pressure point extending beyond energy markets into the digital economy.

What to Watch

Competition among major powers is increasingly moving beneath the surface. As undersea cables become central to national security and the global digital economy, Western efforts to secure critical infrastructure are accelerating. At the same time, Iran’s discussion of new rules for cables crossing Hormuz could turn digital connectivity into a strategic flashpoint alongside traditional energy routes.

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The latest

The recent attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain have reignited debate over Gulf security priorities, prompting renewed scrutiny of whether regional states can continue to address security threats individually.

A Gulf official whose country was recently targeted in attacks that struck sensitive civilian facilities said the developments had gone beyond the framework of solidarity and mutual support.

“The events have imposed new security realities and require a reassessment of existing alliances,” the official told +ontime.

The official also criticized what he described as weak Gulf messaging toward Iran.

“We are dealing with an adversary that sees peace initiatives and mediation as signs of weakness,” he said. “It operates with the mindset of a state-militia hybrid.”

Details

• UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash called for a unified and cohesive Gulf response, arguing that regional security is fully interconnected and that no Gulf state should be left to face such attacks alone.

• Gargash’s assessment reflects the “hawks and doves” framework he previously outlined at the Gulf Media Forum, where he warned that mediators risk becoming “victims” in a volatile regional environment that does not respect neutrality.

• His remarks have revived questions about the political value of continued mediation efforts led by countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar while Gulf states themselves face what officials describe as direct threats to their sovereignty.

• At the same time, a Wall Street Journal report said the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump warned Oman of potential sanctions or even military action unless it scaled back mediation activities and facilitation efforts that Washington believes benefit Tehran.

What to watch

Attention is now turning to whether Gulf capitals will maintain back-channel diplomacy with Iran or move toward a more tangible activation of the GCC Joint Defense Agreement. Another key question is whether the current crisis could accelerate the formation of new intra-Gulf security arrangements and reshape the role of U.S. military bases across the region.

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The latest

The UAE recorded real economic growth of 6.2% in 2025, bringing gross domestic product to about AED 1.9 trillion, according to data from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre.

Non-oil sectors remained the main driver of growth. They expanded by 6.8% and reached about AED 1.5 trillion, reinforcing their role as the core engine of the UAE economy.

Details

• Construction was the fastest-growing sector in 2025, rising 11.1%.

• Finance and insurance grew 10.4%, followed by real estate at 7.9% and transport and storage at 7.8%.

• Trade remained the largest contributor to non-oil GDP, with a 16.9% share.

• Financial services followed with 13.2%, then construction at 12.9% and manufacturing at 12.8%.

• UAE Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri said the figures reflect the country’s progress in building a diversified and sustainable economic model.

• The minister had previously said non-oil activities now account for about 77% of the UAE economy.

Challenges in 2026

The UAE enters 2026 from a position of strength, but early signs of slower momentum are emerging.

Economic reports say non-oil private-sector growth slowed in April to its weakest pace since February 2021, with some activity affected by regional tensions, especially in tourism, trade and shipping.

Financial institutions and analysts have also warned that a prolonged conflict could weigh on growth expectations, particularly if uncertainty in the region hits travel demand and hotel occupancy.

What to watch

The UAE’s 2025 performance gives it a clear buffer heading into a more difficult year.

But 2026 will be a different test. Economic diversification gives the country a strong base, yet continued instability in the Gulf could pressure the sectors that now form the backbone of its non-oil economy, from tourism and shipping to services.

Sources: 

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Two supertankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz loaded with crude oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in a notable sign of limited commercial shipping activity returning through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

Details:

• Bloomberg reported, citing vessel-tracking data, that the Singapore-linked Eagle Veracruz and the Greek-owned Nissos Keros crossed the strait early Tuesday.

• Eagle Veracruz was carrying crude from Saudi Arabia, while Nissos Keros was carrying crude from the UAE.

• The two tankers’ combined crossing represents about 4 million barrels of unsanctioned crude.

• The move came after a week without a similar crossing by non-Iranian crude supertankers through the strait.

• Despite the development, Bloomberg said only five vessels crossed the strait in both directions on Tuesday.

What next?

The significance lies in the cargo and its origin. The passage of Saudi and Emirati crude through Hormuz is a practical test of the security margin available to Gulf shipping, but it does not yet mean normal navigation has returned while overall traffic remains almost paralyzed..

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