The war with Iran has exposed a deeper oil shock than headline prices suggest, with seaborne crude costs jumping to around $145 a barrel, while benchmark prices hover near $109. The divergence points to a real supply crisis not fully captured by financial markets, as flows through the Persian Gulf remain disrupted.
Detail
The gap between the two prices highlights a structural split in the market:
- The commonly quoted price is the futures price, a financial estimate of oil’s value one to two months ahead.
- The spot price reflects the real cost of oil available for immediate delivery, which has surged sharply.
In recent weeks, this gap has widened to levels not seen in more than two decades, raising doubts among analysts and industry executives about the ability of futures markets to reflect reality.
Estimates indicate that at least 10% of global supply has been shut in due to difficulties moving tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has led to:
- Sharp global price increases
- Fuel shortages in parts of Asia
- Emergency measures such as rationing and remote work
Despite a temporary cease-fire, shipping companies remain reluctant to transit the area, leaving a significant share of global oil effectively stranded and tightening physical supply.
What’s Next?
Markets are watching for a safe resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as prolonged disruption could push real prices even higher and deepen the global energy crisis.
